What the forecasts are
Pyko projects a likely final grade from the coursework you enter, including assessment weights, due dates, and the marks recorded so far. The projection begins from your graded average and simulates your remaining assessments under your course’s grading policy. It is revised each time a further assessment is graded.
The forecast and its range, the Coast line, the predicted score on each upcoming assessment, and the pace a Pro plan starts from all come from this one projection. Tools that split your study time across courses or rank which assessments to prepare for use a separate statistical model of your grades, which is still being validated and can disagree with the forecast.
What the numbers mean
A forecast, such as a most-likely grade shown with a likely range, is an estimate rather than a guarantee. The range indicates where the model expects your grade to fall. It is not a commitment, and your final result may fall outside it.
Limitations
The forecast is a simple projection from your own graded work, not a trained machine-learning prediction. Any percentage shown alongside it, such as an 80% likelihood of landing within a given range, describes the model’s own range rather than a measured real-world probability.
The model remains under validation against real graded outcomes, and its confidence ranges are not yet calibrated on observed results. Accuracy has not been measured separately by institution or cohort, and we therefore make no claim that it performs equally for all users.
Not for consequential decisions
Do not rely on a Pyko forecast for high-stakes academic decisions, including dropping a course, withdrawing, or assessing your standing for an award or program. Treat it as one input alongside your syllabus, your instructor, and your academic advisor.